Behold the Future: 07-08 Northwest Division

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Northwest Division: Utah and Denver Better Git It While They Can in the YBGO

Utah Jazz

F Andrei Kirilenko F Matt Harpring
F Carlos Boozer F Paul Milsap
C Memhet Okhur C Kyrylo Fesenko C Jarron Collins
G Gordon Giricek G Ronnie Brewer G Maurice Almond
G Deron Williams G Jason Hart G Ronnie Price

Wow. Before Andrei Kirilenko made his request for a trade, the Jazz were positioning themselves to challenge for a top spot in the West. Now, with major uncertainty at small forward and shooting guard, Utah may be looking at a step backwards in 07-08. With Deron Williams, Carlos Boozer, Memo Okhur and the disgruntled Kirlenko as the nucleus, the Jazz have as promising a young team as there is in the NBA. Throw in second year hero Paul Milsap and newbie Kyrylo Fesenko, and Utah has the lumber to wreck havoc even in the wicked West.
But Kirilenko’s discontent raises serious doubts for Utah’s immediate success. Despite the excellent leadership from pg Williams and the front line beef, Utah is searching for consistent perimeter play from its wing players in a manner not unlike the Stockton-Malone days (excepting the ‘Hornacek era’, of course). They have some young guys, but Sloany doesn't really take to the younger set. Even the versatile Kirilenko is more of a power forward than a wing guy. Maybe Utah needs to seize this opportunity and trade AK for a real small forward? The Jazz would miss his shot blocking and it is always hard to give up on a 26 year old former All-Star.
Or maybe the Jazz should jettison the curmudgeon coach Jerry Sloan. His blow-up with Carlos Arroyo several years back still leaves me scratching my head. I mean, even if you get fed up with a player, Sloan’s tactics of bench banishment dropped Arroyo’s value to the point Utah had to give him away for a draft pick. . . and Arroyo was a hot commodity back then.
Utah will battle Denver for the top spot in the Northwest, but unless Kirilenko is traded or has a change of heart, the Jazz will be undone by weak perimeter play.


Denver Nuggets

F Carmelo Anthony F Linus Klieza
F Kenyon Martin F Eduardo Najera
C Marcus Camby C Nene C Stephen Hunter
G J.R. Smith G Yakhouba Diawara G Bobby Jones
G Allen Iverson G Chucky Atkins G Anthony Carter

An enigma to be sure, Denver boasts as impressive a core of bona fide NBA stars as any team in the League. Even beyond the power trio of Melo, AI and Camby, big men Nene and Kenyon Martin offer the Nugs as formidable a frontline as the League has to offer. . . that is of course if they can stay healthy. Denver has outstanding potential of perimeter young guns J.R. Smith and Linus Klieza, long range bombers with a full set of offensive tools. . . who can barely guard at their positions. Then there is the issues of line-ups: AI has never been a prototypical point guard, but can you imagine Karl trotting out the small ball combo of Chucky Atkins and Iverson night in night out? Can AI even fake guarding the two-guard position at 32? Is playing Yakhouba Diawara or Bobby Jones even really an option if Smith proves incapable of starting?
Even with all these questions, the Nuggets should find themselves squarely in the mix for the Northwest Division title. Melo has raised his game every year, and after a superb Team USA campaign, look for Baltimore’s finest to dominate all comers in 07-08. Though Iverson is not what he was during his MVP run of 2001, a full training camp should prepare the focused vet to deliver a strong season for Denver. Finally, the Camby-man has quietly asserted himself as one of the best centers in the game. If these three guys and either Nene or Martin are all healthy come playoffs, they could make some noise with the Western big boys.


Portland Trail Blazers

F James Jones F Travis Outlaw F Darius Miles
F LaMarcus Aldridge F Channing Frye F Josh McRoberts
C Joel Przybilla C Raef Lafrentz
G Brandon Roy G Martell Webster
G Jarrett Jack G Steve Blake G Taureen Green

Even before Greg Oden went down for the year, Portland was likely going to take a step back record-wise in the 07-08 season. Recent word that Brandon Roy’s reoccurring foot trouble has resurfaced adds to the cloudy forecast for the Rose City’s rim wreckers. Trading away a 20-10 producer like Z-bo, and then letting Steve Francis walk for nothing in return may have made some sense for the Blazers long term vision. But relying on two second-year players, regardless of how talented they may be, to carry your scoring load over the 82 is usually a quick path to lotto-ville. Make no mistake: Roy and fellow super soph LaMarcus Aldridge are the real deal. The young fellas have the potential to be big time stars on both sides of the ball. Durability remains a serious question, as does scoring against defenses geared to stop them.
Z-bo’s departure does have some immediate impact beyond the loss of sure scoring: Nate McMillan will have his squad playing at a higher tempo this season. With additions of Channing Frye, James Jones, Steve Blake and Taureen Green, the Blazers have the personnel to excel with a pressing/running game. Assuming that they can get steady point guard play from Jarret Jack and Steve Blake and stability in the pivot from Przybilla, Frye and Lafrentz, the Blazers will likely win 30-35 games. Perhaps if they get better than expected production from the still young (23 year old) Travis Outlaw or a miracle return to health by Darius ‘the Punisher’ Miles, Portland could push 40 wins. In the Year Before Greg Oden (YBGO), that would be something.


Minnesota Timberwolves

F Corey Brewer F Ryan Gomes F Gerald Green
F Al Jefferson F Juwan Howard F Craig Smith
C Mark Blount C Theo Ratliff
G Ricky Davis G Rashad McCants
G Randy Foye G Sebastian Telfair G Marco Jaric

Sad days in the Twin Cities. Though hopefully not as hapless as they were in the Pooh Richardson era, the TWolves hit the court for the 07-08 season with a rag-tag group of former sucker Celtics and potential wanna-bees that portends many loses. Certainly Al Jefferson is a proven commodity, but is he really a mainstay in the big, bad West? How much can Minnesota expect from the unproven Randy Foye running the show? Will the combo of perimeter youngsters Gerald Green, Corey Brewer and Rashad McCants be able to produce the 30-35 points a night the Wolves will need to compete? How do vets like Ricky Davis, Mark Blount and Marco Jaric fit in? I fear the answers to all of these questions suggest much misery for McHale’s misfits.
Craig Smith and Ryan Gomes are pitted to renew their college rivalry in a battle for minutes backing up the forward slots. . . which is too bad. If either were on a decent team, they would be great role players. For the Wolves, they will likely play sporadically depending on injuries and Whitman’s whims.
As for Juwan Howard’s trade request: Pure comedy. Like his comrades Jalen and Chris, the former Fab Fiver’s window done closed a few seasons ago. He and Theo “Ouch, I’m out for the season” Ratliff can serve as valuable mentors to the kiddie club while earning mega-millions. Not bad for has beens. Brighter days may be ahead, but expect a long cold winter in Target Center.


Seattle Supersonics

F Kevin Durant F Jeff Green
F Chris Wilcox F Nick Collison
C Robert Swift C Kurt Thomas C Johan Petro C Mouhamed Sene
G Wally Szczerbiak G Damien Wilkins
G Delonte West G Earl Watson G Luke Ridnour

The Sonics are in serious trouble. While I believe that Kevin Durant is going to be great in this League, this year he will constantly be fighting upstream. With their youth and personnel, Seattle is going to struggle defensively. Delonte West and Earl Watson provide some ability to pressure the ball, and the trio of 21 year old centers all can block shots, but things get pretty sketchy after that. P.J. will help a lot with the development of the Sonics young bigs on D and on the boards, but in the meantime they are gonna let up a lot of points. This idea of Durant playing 2 is a defensive nightmare. Carlesimo had Harvey Grant lining up at 2 before he was run out of Portland in the 90’s, so the idea is not unprecedented. But after Kevin Martin lights up the rook for 15 in a first quarter*, the experiment will end.
Unfortunately, I think the Sonic offense will be worse than their defense. Yeah, sure, Durant has spectacular potential. But when Seattle lost their only two players who command the attention of help defenders, they put themselves in position to be one of the League’s worst. Durant will be asked to carry an incredible offensive load with highly questionable running mates ‘playing’ off the 19 year old. Uggh. A healthy Wally Szczerbiak might offer some relief. But Wally’s had the injury bug for quite some time now, missing 30 or more games 3 out of the last five seasons. Aside from Durant, Szczerbiak and sometimes Ridnour, there is no one on this team who can reliably create scoring opportunities for himself. Bummer.
If Ridnour could regain his confidence and play some defense, maybe the Sonics avoid the basement. Look for Collison, Wilkins and West to play well amidst the suckiness. Is this the sad swan song of Sonics in Seattle?

* I swear to Big Papi I wrote that before Martin actually lit up Durant for 14 first quarter points in the first game of pre-season. . . truly. But I was wrong about that ending the experiment


Pacific Division: The Mighty Kings Have Fallen. Are the Lakers Close Behind?

Southwest Division: If Memphis Improves, Toughest Division in American Professional Sports