Behold the Future: 07-08 Southwest Division

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Southwest Division: The Toast of the West, deep in the heart of Texas. From Here Come Champions.

San Antonio

F Bruce Bowen F Ime Udoka
F Tim Duncan F Robert Horry F Tiago Splitter
C Fabricio Oberto C Francisco Elson
G Michael Finely G Manu Ginobili G Brent Barry
G Tony Parker G Jacque Vaughn G Beno Udrih

The NBA history books will refer to this past decade at the Duncan-Shaq era. Since 1999 each big man has four titles, with only the Pistons sneaking into the Championship club. Pretty impressive stuff when you consider that Timmy’s Spurs are odds-on favorites to repeat. Say what you will about Pop, Tony and Manu, or the Spurs culture; Duncan’s singular greatness is absolutely the story of San Antonio’s success. His ability and technique protect the rim like no other player I have had the pleasure of watching. Sure Mt. Mutumbo, Zo and others have had better numbers. But notice how teams playing the Spurs always seem to miss easy close in shots. That is Mr. Duncan. And that bank shot from 18 feet? Killer. He is the game’s greatest power forward, and he is not done yet.
But enough about plain old Tim. His teammates have some juice of their own. Tony Parker has clearly established himself as a premier guard in a guard rich League. Like Duncan, he is often over-looked on the NBA’s short list of ‘superstars.’ Yet he blows by folks off the dribble like he is running a drill around orange cones. His ability to finish is unreal. Manu Ginobili is another world beater often omitted from the ‘who’s who’ conversation. The Argentinean Artisan has as wicked a combo of athleticism and guile as any of the NBA elite. His willingness to be a 6th man makes him all the more dangerous in the Spurs scheme. Aside from the Euro Duo, the Spurs are getting a little long in the tooth on the perimeter. Bowen, Horry and Finley are likely on their final victory tour, and the bench brigade of Udoka, Barry and Vaughn is far from youthful. Nevertheless, they remain a super cohesive a unit that compliments Duncan, Parker and Manu. Center remains a bit of a question mark. Oberto is a solid role player who plays with superior intelligence. Whether he or back-up Francisco Elson would play much on another team is a real question. Whether that matters belies the wonder of the Spurs dominance.
Unless the Suns or the Rockets wrest away the Western crown, Timmy and boring bunch are lined up for their 5th Championship in 10 years.


Dallas

F Josh Howard F Devean George F Eddie Jones
F Dirk Nowitski F Brandon Bass F Nick Fazekas
C DeSanaga Diop C Erick Dampier
G Jason Terry G Jerry Stackhouse G Maurice Ager
G Devin Harris G Jose Juan Barea

When the Celtics were swept by the Don Nelson led Milwaukee Bucks in the second round of the 1983 playoffs, humiliation turned to motivation. Larry Bird, who had struggled against a smaller, quicker Paul Pressey, went nut in the off-season and the C’s hung banner 15 the following year. Dirk is no Larry. But he was flummoxed by a Nelson gimmick defense, and certainly should be inspired to kick major arse in the coming season. The 29 year old forward remains one of the top ten players in the League. His running mates are all young and relatively healthy. His coach is a superb motivator and a defensive whiz. Everything is lined up for serious run at the Finals in Big D.
So why am I so doubtful? Maybe it is because the Mavs shoulda had their come to Jesus after blowing the Heat series. Maybe it is because for all of the Mavs vaunted depth, aside from (including?) Nowitski they lack a go-to scorer. Or maybe it is simply because I do not see the Mavs inspiring fear in teams, despite their franchise record 67 wins.
Josh Howard, Jason Terry and Devin Harris are all very talented young players. Their versatility and athleticism allow Avery Johnson outstanding flexibility both in style of play and potential line-ups. Howard, in particular, can be a game changer. On the other hand Dallas’ bigs are one-dimensional and currently banged up. I also have serious reservations about the aging Stackhouse and newly acquired, similarly old Eddie Jones. Both are still decent, but how much help can they give the Mavs when they play the same position?
Dallas will be a much tougher out in the 2008 Playoffs, of that I am sure. Losing to Phoenix, San Antonio or Houston in game 6 or 7 the Second Round is a more dignified fate.


Houston

F Tracy McGrady F Steve Novick
F Luis Scola F Chuck Hayes F Jackie Butler
C Yao Ming C Dikembe Mutumbo
G Shane Battier G Bonzi Wells G Luther Head
G Rafer Alston G Steve Francis G Mike James G Aaron Brooks

Houston is scary. While their Texas neighbors appropriately garner most of the accolades as League powerhouses, the Rockets have assembled quite a squad around Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady. The Rocket’s additions of a humbled Steve Francis, power forward Luis Scola, and back-up guard Mike James (while giving up ALMOST NOTHING) have vaulted Houston into position to challenge all comers in the West. New coach Rick Adelman is a big time winner. His teams always rebound and run, a welcome twist for the sometimes offensively challenged Rockets. Further, Rocket boosters are hoping he can resurrect the mercurial Bonzi Wells, giving Houston ample scoring options for a deep post season run.
Post-season success would be uncharted territory for All-Stars Ming and McGrady. Though health remains a concern for both players, each is in his prime and neither has been so well positioned to play into May and June. While Francis detractors have scoffed at his return to Houston, even in his ‘down years’ Stevie is a load for opponents to handle. Paired with McGrady and Yao, Francis may well be reborn into a top-notch complimentary player.
With San Antonio ruling the roost, and Dallas and the Suns running a close second and third, Houston has a steep hill to climb. But with a strong regular season and the 5 spot in the Playoff seeding, Houston will only have to beat 2 of the three top dogs to reach the Finals.


Memphis

F Rudy Gay F Tarence Kinsey F Brian Cardinal
F Paul Gasol F Hakim Warrick
C Darko Milicic C Stromille Swift
G Mike Miller G Juan Carlos Navarro G Casey Jacobsen
G Mike Conley G Damon Stoudamire G Kyle Lowry

Can a new coach and GM salvage the train wreck that was the 2006-07 Grizzlies’ season? This guy says yes. Despite their abysmal showing last year, the Griz have one of the finest players in the world in Pau Gasol, a deep range bomber in his prime with Mike Miller, and a talented cadre of young uns led by Rudy Gay, Darko Milicic and Mike Conley. Tearing a page from the Suns, coach Ivaroni will take advantage of his team quickness and the full 90 feet of open court. Though expecting a Suns redux in Memphis is unrealistic with either the rookie Conley or the vet Damon Stoudamire playing the Nash role, do not be shocked if Memphis remains in the playoff hunt until early April.
Gasol is maligned and under-estimated by NBA types for reasons I do not understand. His offensive game is efficient and he knows how to involve teammates. He is an above average shot blocker and rebounder, and clearly has the will to win. Though I am not as high on Mike Miller, there is no question that the kid can fill it up, and he will see many open shots under Ivaroni. Gay is redonkulous from a talent stand point--Shawn Marion two inches taller. It is only a matter of time before the UConn product reaches star status. Hakim Warrick will be another success story for the galloping Griz with his ability to run the floor and finish above the rim. If Darko can bring some consistency to the frontcourt and Conley proves capable of starting watch out. Though they will likely return to the lottery in 08, a new day has dawned in Memphis.


New Orleans

F Peja Stojakovic F Julian Wright F Marcus Vinicius
F David West F Hilton Armstrong
C Tyson Chandler C Melvin Ely
G Morris Peterson G Rasual Butler
G Chris Paul G Bobby Jackson G Jannero Pargo

Despite a promising young core of talented young players, New Orleans will likely be on the outside looking in when it comes to the 2008 post season. Chris Paul is a major talent at the point guard slot. Like a mini-LeBron, Paul has lived up to the substantial hype that welcomed his arrival to the League. His on-court leadership and big time game allow the Hornets to play with most any team. The surprising David West joins the peaking Tyson Chandler to lead the frontcourt. West plays with a consistency and poise befitting a 10-year vet. Though unspectacular, his game is economic and effective. Chandler is set up to have a monster year, having developed confidence while rubbing elbows with the stars on Team USA.
Weak perimeter play spells trouble for the Hornets, however, and in the unforgiving Western Conference, I am unsure the young fellas can carry their team. Even assuming that Peja Stojakovic can return to the court, his game has been on the decline for the past three years. Though he may regain his shooting touch, he was always over matched defending the wing. That will only get worse. Morris Peterson is not exactly going to help the Hornets D, and the balance of the New Orleans’ perimeter players are best suited as role players. Rookie Julian Wright could offer some help at the small forward, but his contributions are much more likely to be on the offensive end. On the bright side, the Hornets have a home-grown talent in young big Hilton Armstrong to help hold down the lane and clean the boards for the second unit.
If the Lakers or Golden State disappoint, the Hornets have a chance for the post-season. Otherwise they will have to make due with 35-40 wins and hope for next year.

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