(a sorta) League Preview: Houston Rockets

To recap our preview thus far, we started with the League’s sorriest. We then turned our attention to a slightly better tier of essentially bad teams: Philadelphia, Detroit, Charlotte, Indiana, Golden State, Minnesota and New York. All these teams have just enough potential that they could surprise and make a run for an 8 seed. The best team in this tier is just the fourth best in the still mighty Southwest.

Houston Rockets

PG Aaron Brooks Kyle Lowry

SG Tracy McGrady Chase Budinger

SF Shane Battier Trevor Ariza

PF Carl Landry Chuck Hayes Brian Cook

C Louis Scola Pops Mensah-Bonsu Joey Dorsey

Writing about the 2009-10 Rockets feels as much like an epitaph for Tracy McGrady as a review of the team’s prospects. With Yao down for the season and Ron-Ron in LA LA land, TMac has to regain his All-League form for the Rockets to remain in the category of the relevant. The Rockets have a splendid group of scrappers, defenders, and gamers, none of whom are over 6’10. They have played through injuries for years, and are as cohesive a team in any in the League. But this squad has huge holes up front and very little offensive fire power. Without a big scorer, the Rockets simply do not have enough talent to compete for a post season berth.

McGrady is already on the shelf until late November. For a 30 year old wing player with a history of injuries, I think we can expect McGrady to miss at least 18 games. Probably more like 25-30. Even when he is one the court, Tracy the Dominator has not been seen for a couple seasons now. Recent reports have McGrady saying all the right things—feeling better than ever and all that jazz. I would love to see the old TMac on the court. I would not bet on it however. The margin that separates really good and great in the NBA is thin. 60 games with a ‘really good’ McGrady will not get it done.

Which is a shame, because Houston has a heck of a supporting cast. Luis Scola seems poised to have a marvelous year. He will be able to assume some of the scoring burden. Though if Houston really plays Scola at center, he will be physically taxed over the course of the 82. The emergence of water bug Aaron Brooks in the backcourt is exciting. I imagine Dukie-supreme Battier may show us some things if called upon, as will Carl Landry. New free agent Ariza is more of a question mark. He has never been known as a creator on offense.

Coach Rick Adelman has his team focused and hungry year in and year out. We can expect more of the same from Houston. Ariza and Battier will be able to lock up the perimeter on D. Landry is tenacious and talented. Scola is crafty and skilled. But there is simply too much talent in the West for Houston to make it to the post season. Houston will win some big games, and they will compete well at home. They may win 40 games. But barring a miracle season, Lotteryville is the ultimate destination for the Rockets.