The Moonball Blog

Friday, October 23, 2009

(a sorta) League Preview: Dallas Mavericks



The fate of the sorriest teams and the lottery likelies is fairly clear: 82 and done. The prospects for the might be somethings are more promising, and the playoff solids are just that. The fifth grouping of teams is perhaps the most exciting. These two squads are not among the contenders, and may not perform as well as the playoff solids. But watch out, because if the gel as a unit, they have the potential to beat everyone. First up, the second best in the Southwest.



Dallas Mavericks



PG Jason Kidd Jose Juan Barea Rodrigue Beaubois

SG Josh Howard Jason Terry

SF Shawn Marion Quinton Ross

PF Dirk Nowitski Kris Humphries Tim Thomas

C Erick Dampier Drew Gooden



Since being embarrassed by the Miami Heat in the 2006 NBA Finals, Dallas has mostly been an after thought in the race for Western Conference supremacy. The book on stopping Dirk was open to all. The inglorious dismissal of coach Avery Johnson after the 2008 season indicated a deep level of organizational disarray. The Jason Kidd for Devin Harris trade seemed a lateral move at best. After finishing the 2008-09 season with 50 wins and a 2nd round playoff exit, the Mavs appeared mired among the good but not great.


So what has changed for Dallas? The addition of Shawn Marion for a song and bowl of soup is one huge factor. Though not the Matrix of old, Marion remains a singular talent in terms of his ability to score and scrap without demanding touches. Paired with Kidd, Marion will likely find new life and effectiveness. He is an ideal running mate for Dirk and the key ingredient for the mix and match lineups Dallas wants to run.


Another big plus for the Mavericks is a well-rested Nowitski. Between the NBA and the German national team, Dirk has been playing year round for most of his 11 year career. Now 31, Nowitski took the summer off to rest his body. He enters the season in excellent shape and with full health. He remains a dominant scorer from the perimeter and his 7’0 frame allows Dallas to go ‘small’ while remaining long.


While the additions of Drew Gooden, Quinton Ross, Kris Humphries, Tim Thomas and Rodrigue Beaubois are not on par with Marion’s arrival, the quintet helps restore the depth that has characterized the best Mavs teams of the Cuban era. Along with Erick Dampier, Jason Terry and Jose Juan Barea, Dallas now has twelve guys ready to contribute.


The age of Jason Kidd and the health of Josh Howard remain serious questions for the Mavs. Kidd can clearly still run a team, but his defense at the point of attack is weak and will likely get weaker. Howard, arguably the team’s most versatile defender, has been repeatedly sidelined by all sorts of nicks and strains. For the Mavericks to make some post season noise, both Kidd and Howard must contribute at a high level. For Howard, who played zero in the pre-season, getting back on the court soon is crucial because Dallas wants him to play out of position at the two guard.


Dallas is going to put up major points this season. The remaining vets from the run to the Finals—Nowitski, Terry, Howard and Damp—have not forgotten the bitter taste of finishing second. Kidd is looking for one more run at glory. And I have a funny feeling that Beaubois might be awesome. Though clearly not in the class of the contenders, the Mavericks are very dangerous.



Considering the age of the Spurs, imagining Dallas capturing the Southwest Division is not that hard. If they can find a rhythm entering the post season, they will be an extremely difficult out for either LA or San Antonio. Returning to the Finals is improbable, but not impossible. Beating the best of the East? Cannot imagine it. Just like I could not imagine the Heat winning in 2006.

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