Behold the (ahem) Present: 07-08 Central Division

The Central Division is home to three teams that could make a run to the Finals

Cleveland

F LeBron James F Sasha Pavlovic F Ira Newbill
F Drew Gooden F Donyell Marshall
C Zydrunas Illgauskas C Cedric Simmons
G Larry Hughes G Shannon Brown
G Daniel Gibson G Damon Jones

I can hardly remember a defending conference champ that has been so overlooked in pre-season rankings. True, winning last year’s East doesn’t say much. More true, the Cavs put forth an all-time dismal showing in the Finals. Most true, without Anderson Varejo, a team with already thin talent got thinner. But here are some more things that are true: LeBron clearly got better over the summer. . . that is scary. Mike Brown has crafted a defensive powerhouse, and defense never gets its due in pre-season prognostications. The core of this team has been together for three years, and continuity can do wonders for team success.
Big Z has been fairly healthy for the past 5 seasons. Although the 7’3 center has seen a dip in production, there is no substitute for skilled size in the NBA; playing against such a massive dude wears people out. The ever-wacky Drew Gooden may only have the sense of a pea, but as he has matured, his focus on defense and rebounding make him very effective. The fragile Larry Hughes is an interesting X-factor for the Cavs. Though he has yet to find his offensive sweet spot playing alongside the King, Hughes is top shelf talent. If he improves this season, the Cavs can weather the loss of Pavlovic. The explosive Daniel Gibson is another unknown entering his second year. More than anyone on the Cavs, his game seems to play off LeBron’s. A year younger than LBJ, Boobie will go places if he keeps stickin that J.
Cleveland will face much stiffer competition this go round the East. The retooled Celtics join the Bulls and Raptors as emerging powers, and Detroit appears poised to make another run for glory. But the reality of LeBron suggests that the Cavs just might be up to the challenge. Kid turns 23 in December. His reign has just begun. The road to the Finals must go through Cleveland.


Chicago

F Luol Deng F Andres Nocioni F Victor Kryhapa
F Tyrus Thomas F Joe Smith
C Ben Wallace C Joakim Noah C Aaron Gray
G Ben Gordon G Thabo Sefolosha G JamesOn Curry
G Kirk Hinrich G Chris Duhon

Talk about a cohesive unit. The Chicago Bulls are an excellent team featuring a core of players entering their prime who have played together for three seasons or more. Defense is their calling card and combined with sterling guard play, the Bulls are capable of competing with any team in the League. Though their bigs lack offensive talent, the combo of the veteran Ben Wallace and youngens Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah is fearsome on D. Chicago has outstanding depth at forward and in the backcourt. Their major shortcoming--lack of a so-called super star—may be remedied from within with the maturation of Luol Deng and /or Ben Gordon.
So why are the Bulls not my favorite to win the East, or even the Central Division? Because they have been in a holding pattern as burgeoning power for several years now without making a significant post-season run. In the NBA, the proverbial ‘window of opportunity’ can open and close quickly. In the weak East of the last few years, Chicago seemed to be primed for making a deep run, if not a Finals showing. No dice. Now the East has greatly improved, with Cleveland, Boston, Toronto all arguably a step ahead of the Bulls. Chicago has yet to surpass their rivals in Detroit.
Speaking of Detroit, Chicago should take heart in their Superstar-less championship run of 2004. As long as everyone plays their role and one or two guys steps up and play big when their name is called ala Chauncey Billups, the Bulls still have the potential to make a run all the way to June. Or maybe LeBron, Chris Bosh and the GAP Band have already closed the window.



Detroit

F Tayshaun Prince F Jarvis Hayes
F Antonio McDyess F Jason Maxiell F Amir Johnson
C Rasheed Wallace C Nazr Mohammed
G Richard Hamilton G Rodney Stuckey G Aaron Affalo
G Chauncey Billups G Flip Murray

In the years that followed the 1986 World Title, the Boston Celtics front office made annual pre-season proclamations of added bench depth and young legs to spell the All League workhorses in the starting line-up. Never really happened except when dictated by injuries or foul trouble—and when the bench did play there was a negative impact on the scoreboard. The problem with exceptional players is that they are essentially irreplaceable. Now four seasons removed from their Title run, Detroit’s core of Billups, Sheed, Rip and Prince remains as tight a core as there is in the League, with only rumors of new help from the bench separating them from the middle of the pack in an improved East.
I actually am quite fond of Jason Maxiell and Flip Murray. The former is an under-sized energy rebounder-banger type at power forward. The later a disappointing free agent from 07 that may thrive in 08. Jarvis Hayes is another for real player, with the versatility to back up both Prince and Hamilton. The rookie Stuckey and wild card Amir Johnson could possibly make contributions. But I somehow don’t see this bench help lifting the Pistons back into that rare air of Championship competition.
But more important than the bench is the failure of the Pistons to have found a viable replacement for Ben Wallace since losing him to the Division rival Bulls. Joe Dumars has rightfully been praised for his early front office successes. But considering that three of his talented quartet are nearing the end of their prime years, Joe D’s failure to find the next Big Ben (no diss to McDyess, Webber, etc) puts a ceiling on Detroit’s prospects. Capable of beating any of the East elite, Detroit will not survive the second round.



Indiana

F Danny Granger F Shawne Williams
F Jermaine O’Neal F Ike Diogu
C Troy Murphy C Jeff Foster C David Harrison
G Mike Dunleavy G Marquis Daniels G Kareem Rush
G Jamaal Tinsley G Travis Diener

Jim O’Brien sorta looks like an elf to me. The pointy ears and nose. The gleam in his eye. Liken to the elf kin, he seems to possess some magical powers when it comes to get guys to play for him. The Celtics team he took to the Eastern Conference Finals in 01 was not good. Antoine was in his prime and of course there was the Extra P. But an aging Kenny Anderson, Tony Battie and Eric Williams as starters? Quality. AI says O’Brien was his favorite pro coach.
Twas for this magic the Pacers brace brought in Lucky Jim: To enchant this group of rag tag Pacers to rally around Jermaine O’Neal and the coach’s game plan. The spell in powerful: You get incredible freedom to jack up shots, especially threes, as long as you bust your ass on defense, execute the defensive schemes to perfection, and then bust your ass on defense more. With personnel like oft disgruntled but ultra talented Jamaal Tinsley, the unproven Danny Granger, the disappointing Dukie Mike Dunleavy and the perimeter oriented big Troy Murphy, O.B. already has players with the skills to excel in his system. Jermaine is matured into one of the dominant defensive bigs in the League. He has a versatile offensive game that will blend well with the spread floor in the half-court sets. All of the other Pacer starters can stroke the three. Jeff Foster and Marquis Daniels bring great defensive energy off the bench.
But before we get to happy about B-Ball in Indiana, let’s remember that virtually this same cast of characters sucked last year. With the exception of O’Neal, the Pacers do not have bona fide star. Tinsley has some tools, but between injuries and seeming lapses of intensity, he is on no one’s short list of top playmakers. Dunleavy and Murphy are proven losers from their Warrior daze. In all likelihood in the tough Central, the Pacers will struggle to win half their games. In the event of Elvin magic, Indiana will be the surprise story of the East by beating out a good Washington or Orlando for the 8 spot.




Milwaukee

F Desmond Mason F Bobby Simmons
F Yi Jianlian F Charlie Villanueva
C Andrew Bogut C Dan Gadzuric C Jake Voskuhl
G Michael Redd G Charlie Bell
G Mo Williams G Royal Ivey G Ramon Sessions

Milwaukee is a hard to figure. They have a real good young center in Andrew Bogut, one of the League’s purest scorers in Michael Redd and a fine emerging point guard in Mo Williams. Though Yi Jianlian and Charlie Villanueva represent a certain redundancy, given their relative youth and lack of experience, the competition between the two may be ideal. Desmond Mason and Bobby Simmons are solids vets on the perimeter. Charlie Bell is a prototypical third guard. All these positives, and yet I cannot imagine the Bucks winning more than 35 games.
One of the Bucks challenges is the team composition in terms of experience and veteran leadership. Desmond Mason is the team elder at 30. With the exception of Bobby Simmons, all of the Buck’s ‘vets’ cut their teeth developing alongside one another. And with one another they have finished under .500 every season since 2003-04. Winning more than you lose is uncharted territory for these fellows. Another challenge is going to be the minutes crunch at the two forward positions. The story that Milwaukee promised Yi minutes could come back to haunt the Bucks if Villanueva reacts poorly to his own reduced role. Assuming Simmons can rediscover his game, he and Mason are both going to want to play big minutes.
I like Bogut’s game. I think he is going to have a break out year. Redd’s game is beauty. Williams is damn tough. If Yi can somehow play at a high level in his rookie season, who knows? Maybe Milwaukee could make some noise for a playoff spot. More likely however, the Bucks will simply have more losing streaks than winning ones in a roller coaster season of promise and frustration.

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